Does anyone believe the unemployment numbers




















Skip Navigation. Key Points. The unemployment rate fell to That's due an error in how furloughed workers were treated in the data sample.

Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards. That's the same category of workers who'd be on vacation, for example. That would put the official unemployment rate at The true rate could be higher still.

Are they White, or Black, or Asian, or of Hispanic ethnicity? How much education do they have? Are they concentrated in one area of the country more than another? These statistics—together with other economic data—can be used by policymakers to determine whether measures should be taken to influence the future course of the economy or to aid those affected by joblessness.

Department of Labor announces the total number of employed and unemployed people in the United States for the previous month, along with many characteristics about them. These figures, particularly the unemployment rate—which tells you the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed—receive wide coverage in the media.

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the government uses the number of people collecting unemployment insurance UI benefits under state or federal government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits.

So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed. Other people think that the government counts every unemployed person each month. To do this, every home in the country would have to be contacted—just as in the population census every 10 years. This procedure would cost way too much and take far too long to produce the data.

In addition, people would soon grow tired of having a census taker contact them every month, year after year, to ask about job-related activities. Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey CPS to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. In , the U. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS.

The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In , for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information. There are about 60, eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately , individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2, people.

In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2, geographic areas sampling units. The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state.

Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed for more than 4 consecutive months. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good.

As a result, approximately 75 percent of the sample remains the same from month to month and 50 percent remains the same from year to year. This procedure strengthens the reliability of estimates of month-to-month and year-to-year change in the data.

Each month, highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees contact the 60, eligible sample households and ask about the labor force activities jobholding and job seeking or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week usually the week that includes the 12th of the month.

These are live interviews conducted either in person or over the phone. During the first interview of a household, the Census Bureau interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including key personal characteristics such as age, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on. The information is collected using a computerized questionnaire.

Each person is classified according to their activities during the reference week. Then, the survey responses are "weighted," or adjusted to independent population estimates from the Census Bureau. The weighting takes into account the age, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, and state of residence of the person, so that these characteristics are reflected in the proper proportions in the final estimates. A sample is not a total count, and the survey may not produce the same results that would be obtained from interviewing the entire population.

But the chances are 90 out of that the monthly estimate of unemployment from the sample is within about , of the figure obtainable from a total census.

Relative to total unemployment—which ranged between about 7 and 15 million over the past decade—the possible error resulting from sampling is not large enough to distort the total unemployment picture. Because these interviews are the basic source of data for total unemployment, information must be correct and consistent.

Survey respondents are never asked specifically if they are unemployed, nor are they given an opportunity to decide their own labor force status. Their status will be determined based on how they respond to a specific set of questions about their recent activities.

Similarly, interviewers do not decide the respondents' labor force classification. They simply ask the questions in the prescribed way and record the answers. Based on information collected in the survey and definitions programmed into the computer, individuals are then classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. All interviews must follow the same procedures to obtain comparable results.

Because of the crucial role interviewers have in the household survey, a considerable amount of time and effort is spent maintaining the quality of their work. Interviewers are given intensive training, including classroom lectures, discussion, practice, observation, home-study materials, and on-the-job training. At least once a year, they attend day-long training and review sessions. Also, at least once a year, they are accompanied by a supervisor during a full day of interviewing to determine how well they carry out their assignments.

The survey excludes people living in institutions for example, a correctional institution or a residential nursing or mental health care facility and those on active duty in the Armed Forces. The survey is designed so that each person age 16 and over there is no upper age limit is counted and classified in only one group.

The sum of the employed and the unemployed constitutes the civilian labor force. People not in the labor force combined with those in the civilian labor force constitute the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and over. Under these concepts, most people are quite easily classified. For example, consider these fictional scenarios:.

Elena reported to the interviewer that last week she worked 40 hours as a sales manager for a beverage company. Elena is employed. Steve lost his job when the local plant of an aircraft manufacturing company closed down. Since then, he has been contacting other businesses in town trying to find a job. Steve is unemployed. Linda is a stay-at-home mother. Last week, she was occupied with her normal household activities. She neither held a job nor looked for a job.

Her year-old father who lives with her has not worked or looked for work because of a disability. Linda and her father are not in the labor force. People are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey reference week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, as well as regular full-time, year-round employment. There was a rise in the number of vacancies, to the highest level since the pandemic began.

Some businesses, like restaurants and bars, now say they are struggling to find the workers they need to reopen. The number of people being made redundant has also been falling, though it is still higher than it was before the pandemic began. Without the billions spent on schemes to protect jobs, and the rapid roll-out of vaccines, the unemployment rate would have been much higher. Last year it was feared that up to four million people would be unemployed. Under the furlough scheme, the government has helped many businesses keep their staff on by helping to pay their wages.

The furlough scheme has protected more than 11 million jobs since the pandemic began, and four million workers were on furlough at the end of March. The scheme will continue until the end of September. The start of the pandemic saw a big increase in the number of people claiming out-of-work benefits - far more than the rise in the number of people counted as unemployed.

In April there were 2. This compares with 1. Use precise geolocation data. Select personalised content. Create a personalised content profile.

Measure ad performance. Select basic ads. Create a personalised ads profile. Select personalised ads. Apply market research to generate audience insights.

Measure content performance. Develop and improve products. List of Partners vendors. But the unemployment rate doesn't tell the whole story of how American workers are faring.

Clearly, the CPS is an important measure, but it can't tell us everything about the state of unemployment in the U. Here are some factors that impact workers in the U. The CPS counts people as employed if they are working at part-time or temporary jobs, regardless of the number of hours worked or whether this employment represents a sufficient or ideal employment situation for that worker. If a laid-off consultant works 10 hours at a fast-food restaurant, they would be counted as employed.

However, this employment is likely neither sufficient to pay their bills nor ideal for this individual or society as a whole , given that he is qualified to do more challenging, more productive, and higher-paying work. The consultant working as a server at a fast-food restaurant is an example of something else that is not measured by the unemployment rate: underemployment , or working at a job that requires fewer skills and offers lower pay than the best jobs for which a worker is qualified.

Our consultant would also be considered an involuntary part-time worker, yet another factor the unemployment rate does not consider.

The BLS only counts as unemployed those who "do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior four weeks, and are currently available for work.



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